The hottest mobile phone market is sluggish, and t

The market is depressed, and the industrial chain is a little cold this winter.

recently, the relevant industrial chains, like the weather in China, have collectively encountered the strongest cold wave since the beginning of the winter. They have come together from the post settlement and replacement of multiple brands, the decline of product shipments, the general withdrawal of screen products, the adjustment of inventory accumulation pressure, the smashing of offline stores, the outbreak of capital chain crisis, the layoff triggered the jump of buildings, the decline of all concept stocks back to a year ago, and so on, Let people shout: what's the matter

it's no wonder that not only did the sales of Apple's new iPhone x slow down, but the orders in the upstream supply chain fell sharply, causing the oscillation and decline of Apple concept stocks, but also according to the data of the China Academy of information and communications, in November this year, China's domestic market shipped 43.251 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%; 77 new models were launched, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%. From January to November, China's domestic market shipped 448million units and 964 new models, down 9.7% and 27.0% year-on-year respectively, indicating that China's domestic market has experienced rapid growth in the incremental market in the past few years, and turned around and fell back to the oscillation of the stock exchange market to a plateau

in fact, in the global market, it can be said that the manufacturers of the entire Android camp have encountered a recession crisis. Foreign media reported that according to the analysis of market research enterprise SA, the sales volume of Samsung Electronic Intelligence this year is expected to reach 319.8 million units, accounting for 20.5% of the global market. Next year, the sales volume is expected to be 315.3 million units, and the share will fall to 19.2%

however, SA believes that in the global market, except apple, other Chinese manufacturers will perform better. It is expected that the sales volume of the world's top ranked manufacturers will maintain this year's level or increase next year. Among them, Apple sold 218.1 million units this year, with a market share of 14%. It is expected to sell 234 million units next year, with a market share of 14.3%. The growth momentum of Chinese enterprises is very rapid. Huawei, which ranks third in the market, has a market share of 7% in 2015, 9.3% in 2016, and will reach 10% this year. The twists and turns of various types of wire cores are one of the important reasons for insulation eccentricity. Oppo and Xiaomi also show a rapid growth trend

that is to say, in fact, the domestic industrial chain does not need to be so jittery. Although the days of rapid growth in China's local market are gone for the time being, it does not mean that Chinese manufacturers in overseas markets have no opportunity, at least they can pull Samsung's leg in overseas markets

in fact, the global market pattern has basically not changed much. The Chinese market is still driven by large apps, upgrading memory and cameras to squeeze the market share of 4G in the early stage of machine replacement; Apple and other high-end models are ready to reap the market space for business people after 00 with the wave of video interaction; Europe and the United States, which are less affected by mobile Internet, still cling to traditional brands, and operators who replace old machines with new ones have the world market; As for the industrial chain model workers who received subsidies from the Chinese government and the Chinese stock market, they turned their guns and rushed to South Asia and other emerging markets with a large population base and poor patent protection

however, the most risky of these may also be the last type of manufacturers and their supporting industrial chain manufacturers, because at least for the moment, among the top Chinese brand manufacturers with high market share in China, the top few brands that are likely to make profits, such as Huawei, oppo, vivo, Xiaomi, have not yet entered the capital market, and even if they lose money secretly, they will not affect the pockets of shareholders. Moreover, the physical problems of these manufacturers are not too big. The money subsidized by the government can also earn from the tax and the return on investment in other surrounding industries

in addition to these brand manufacturers, the rest of the brand manufacturers that eat government subsidies or other market companies in the industrial chain, once the government is tight and the subsidies cannot be reduced, the twists and turns experiment (astmd790, d6272 and ISO178) will be postponed, or the stock prices of listed companies and enterprises will return to the essence of investment, and the financial funds of enterprises can no longer be drawn from the stock market, and it is not impossible to have the risk of fund chain rupture spread in the industry, Because there are precedents for LETV and Coolpad

of course, these crises are superficial. The deeper reason is that Apple no longer just leads the smart market to do simple software optimization or hardware parameter upgrading, but plays a hardware revolution again. Apple not only extends AI from simple camera optimization and display optimization to the bottom of the whole system in intelligence, but also redevelops and integrates the hardware

the reason why the whole industry chain is so pessimistic in the near future may be related to Apple's display of a new type of efficient integration of Artificial Intelligence AI and virtual reality ar. with its strong R & D ability, Apple has realized the barrier free conversion of intelligent terminal AI, AR offline applications and cloud AI, AR applications, so that users in any network environment can fully enjoy the excellent performance of Apple's new computer in the field of AI and AR applications, It has left the Android camp a whole generation behind, resulting in a generational situation of Android intelligence

Samsung is also deeply aware of this. It spares no effort to promote artificial intelligence voice assistant, and also wants to catch up with Apple's artificial intelligence through the software level, so that its intelligence will not fall too far behind. However, Samsung's biggest difficulty at present is still the same as all Android camp brands, that is, how to break the restrictions of the bottom of the system and the lack of hardware research and development ability in the short term, so as to create the same deadlock between the user experience of artificial intelligence in closed terminal applications and the user experience of applications assisted by the cloud

from some aspects, the global industrial chain has been brought to the same scene as when Apple released intelligence. Except for Apple's artificial intelligence, other intelligent status has been beaten back to the status when other functional computers faced Apple's intelligence

however, will this hardware revolution triggered by apple, like pulling all traditional brands off the horse in those years, reshape the global new AI market pattern again, so that enterprises with R & D strength can quickly rise in the AI market, or use asymmetric AI new technologies to kill several new dark horses in the AI Market, which is still too early at present, After all, the hardware revolution itself includes redefining the system software. Compared with the CEO of AGC aerocomposites, who only copied the imitation software at the beginning, the "cofusion" project is a huge opportunity for our company to seek the progress of composite technology. The intelligent revolution is much more complex

however, it is undeniable that the hardware manufacturing and assembly part of the global industrial chain with the worst profitability will basically be taken over by Chinese manufacturers. In the foreseeable three to five years, it is basically impossible to replicate such a centralized and comprehensive market in other countries and regions. To say that through the guidance and penetration of artificial intelligence, the whole manufacturing industry will also be artificial intelligence, and the real realization of industry 4.0 may be a little more in five to ten years. But in the further future, the industrial chain has fully realized the artificial intelligence of reducing the stiffness of all transmission systems. It is difficult to say whether it is still true

source: Report